基于土地使用动态的长江三角洲地区碳平衡分析
1College of Humanities & Social Development, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, 210095, China.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|September 12, 2025
概括
长江三角洲地区面临着持续的碳赤字,尽管排放增长放缓. 国内生产总值 (GDP) 和政策等关键驱动因素对碳排放产生重大影响,需要针对可持续发展和双碳目标制定有针对性的减排战略.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
- 区域可持续发展 区域可持续发展
背景情况:
- 全球气候变化迫切需要对区域碳预算进行评估.
- 长江三角洲面临着平衡经济增长与生态保护的挑战.
- 实施"双碳"战略 (碳峰值和碳中和) 对于可持续发展至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 从2010年到2020年,系统计算和分析长江三角洲的碳排放量.
- 研究土地覆盖面的时空演变及其与碳排放的关系.
- 确定关键的驱动因素及其对碳排放的相互作用影响,以制定有针对性的政策.
主要方法:
- 碳排放系数方法用于计算总区域碳排放量.
- 对于时空空间地表覆盖演变的遥感数据分析.
- 空间相关性分析 (全球和本地) 和排放模式的热点分析.
- 地理探测器模型用于评估驱动因素和相互作用效应.
主要成果:
- 在整个研究期间,长江三角洲地区保持了碳赤字,尽管排放速度放缓,但排放量仍在持续增长.
- 在碳排放方面观察到显著的空间异质性,确定了高排放核心区域.
- 经济因素 (GDP,工业结构,投资),能源效率和政策支持被确定为具有协同作用的重要驱动因素.
结论:
- 该研究为该地区实施差异化减排战略提供了关键数据支持.
- 结果为区域和国家一级的低碳发展规划和政策制定提供了理论基础.
- 这项研究有助于促进生态文明和实现"双碳"战略目标.
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