在气候变化下使用maxent建模预测xylella fastidiosa的全球传播
Monerah S M Alqahtani1, Amal K Elshahawi2, Sameh M H Khalaf3
1Biology Department, Faculty of Science, King Khalid University, Abha, 61413, Saudi Arabia.
Scientific reports
|September 12, 2025
概括
一种主要的植物病原体Xylella fastidiosa可能会因气候变化而扩大其全球范围. 这项研究预测高风险地区的增加,强调需要积极管理,以保护农业和生物多样性.
科学领域:
- 植物病理学 植物病理学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 生物地理学 生物地理学
背景情况:
- 紫菌 (Xylella fastidiosa) 是一种毒性植物病原体,原产于美洲.
- 它对全球有价值的作物和装饰植物构成重大风险.
- 像欧盟这样的地区采取了严格的措施来防止其传播.
研究的目的:
- 预测Xylella fastidiosa在各种气候变化场景下的全球传播情况.
- 确定影响其息地适宜性的关键生物气候因素.
- 预测未来这种病原体的高风险地区.
主要方法:
- 使用地理信息系统 (GIS) 和最大模型 (Maxent).
- 从113个不同的地点收集了发生数据.
- 采用了来自WorldClim的19个生物气候变量,重点关注降水和温度季节性和极端.
主要成果:
- 马克森特模型显示出高性能 (AUC=0.91,TSS=0.66).
- 目前高风险地区集中在亚热带/热带地区,包括美洲和地中海欧洲.
- 2050年和2070年的预测预测高风险区的显著扩张,特别是在高排放场景 (RCP) 下.
结论:
- 气候变化可能会加剧Xylella fastidiosa的扩散.
- 积极的管理策略对于减轻全球农业和生物多样性的风险至关重要.
- 了解未来的分布是有效的植物卫生措施的关键.
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