一种贝塔回归方法,用于建模国家一级的粮食不安全
Anamaria Roxana Martin1, Tabita Cornelia Adamov2, Iuliana Merce2
1Doctoral School Engineering of Plant and Animal Resources, University of Life Sciences "King Mihai I" from Timisoara, Calea Aradului No. 119, 300645 Timisoara, Romania.
Foods (Basel, Switzerland)
|September 13, 2025
概括
在全球范围内减少粮食不安全需要解决经济因素. 粮食不安全的主要驱动因素包括低消费支出,高收入不平等,通货膨胀和低经济全球化,影响零饥饿目标.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 发展研究 发展研究 研究
背景情况:
- 尽管农业取得了进展,但粮食不安全问题仍在全球范围内持续存在.
- 实现可持续发展目标2 (零饥饿) 需要了解其驱动因素.
- 国家一级粮食不安全的结构性决定因素需要进行定量评估.
研究的目的:
- 识别和定量评估国家一级粮食不安全的结构性决定因素.
- 为政策制定提供经验证据,以实现零饥饿.
- 分析经济,农业,政治和人口因素的影响.
主要方法:
- 适用于横截面数据的β回归模型.
- 分析包括153个国家.
- 综合经济,农业,政治和人口变量.
主要成果:
- 低家庭消费支出,高收入不平等 (GINI),高通货膨胀和低经济全球化显著预测了更高的粮食不安全.
- 土地面积和每公的生产率显示了轻微的逆效应.
- 在这个模型中,失业,政治稳定和冲突并不是重要的预测因素.
结论:
- 经济能力,减少不平等,控制通胀和全球贸易对于缓解粮食不安全至关重要.
- 政策干预应侧重于这些与经济和贸易有关的因素.
- 未来的研究可以探索时间序列,面板或空间分析以获得更深入的见解.
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