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非洲猪瘟在婆罗洲地区迅速蔓延
Olivia Z Daniel1, Sui Peng Heon2, Christl A Donnelly3,4,5
1Georgina Mace Centre for the Living Planet, Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK.
Animals : an open access journal from MDPI
|September 13, 2025
概括
非洲猪瘟 (ASF) 迅速蔓延到婆罗洲,影响野生胡子猪. 公民科学数据显示,疫情正在加速,突出了持续禁止狩猎和生物安全措施的必要性.
科学领域:
- 兽医流行病学 兽医流行病学
- 野生动物疾病生态学 野生动物疾病生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
背景情况:
- 非洲猪瘟 (ASF) 在2020年底在婆罗洲出现,最初影响野生胡子猪 (Sus barbatus).
- 疾病传播监测受到COVID-19限制的阻碍,需要新的数据收集方法.
研究的目的:
- 为了追踪ASF在婆罗洲传播的时空动态.
- 通过公民科学数据分析疫情的速度和模式.
- 为了为胡须猪的保护和管理策略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用巴比胡坦项目的公民科学数据 (通过网站,社交媒体,WhatsApp观测).
- 来自其他在线来源的综合数据,用于全面监测.
- 模拟疾病传播使用指数增长模型.
主要成果:
- 在一年内,ASF几乎遍布整个婆罗洲岛.
- 随着时间的推移,ASF传播的速度加快了,遵循指数模型.
- 估计的平均传播速度为0.89公里/天 (100天) 和4.28公里/天 (400天).
结论:
- 应该保留目前对胡须猪的狩猎禁令.
- 在疫情爆发期间,紧急的生物安全措施对家猪种群至关重要.
- 建议包括对幸存的猪进行耐药性测试,疾病建模,以及对胡子猪的IUCN状态重新评估.
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