效率能否抵消城市增长造成的排放? 沙特建筑的前景
Fateh Belaïd1, Jeyhun I Mikayilov1, Raphael Apeaning1
1King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, P.O. Box 88550, Riyadh 11672, Saudi Arabia.
Journal of environmental management
|September 13, 2025
概括
沙特阿拉伯 沙特阿拉伯 沙特阿拉伯
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 能源经济学 能源经济学
- 建筑科学 建筑科学
背景情况:
- 建筑行业是二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放的重要贡献者.
- 了解该部门二氧化碳排放的驱动因素对于有效的气候变化缓解战略至关重要.
- 沙特阿拉伯的建筑行业是一个独特的案例,原因是城市化和能源消耗模式的快速发展.
研究的目的:
- 分析影响沙特阿拉伯建筑业二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放减少的关键驱动因素.
- 根据各种情景,预测到2060年的可信二氧化碳排放轨迹.
- 确定实现建筑行业脱碳目标的关键因素.
主要方法:
- 使用1990-2022年历史数据进行经济学分析.
- 蒙特卡洛模拟用于场景构建和排放轨迹预测.
- 分类树和回归技术用于识别关键影响因素.
主要成果:
- 电力强度增加1%与二氧化碳排放增加0.30%相关.
- 电价上1%与二氧化碳排放减少0.31%有关.
- 城市化增长1%与二氧化碳排放量显著增加6.16%相关.
- 积极的干预措施可以在2060年前将人均二氧化碳排放量减少24.6%,而目前的趋势可能会导致6.4%的增加.
结论:
- 能源效率,电价和城市化是沙特阿拉伯建筑业二氧化碳排放的关键决定因素.
- 一种涉及节能技术,更严格的建筑规范,反映成本的定价,城市规划和适应性政策的多方面的方法对于脱碳是必不可少的.
- 有针对性的干预措施可以显著改变排放轨迹,强调积极实施政策的重要性.
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