风险因素和临床预测模型在患有结直肠多的患者内镜手术后短期复发
Meng Zhang1, Rui Yin1, Jie Ying1
1Department of Gastroenterology, Nanjing Jiangbei Hospital, Nanjing 210048, Jiangsu Province, China.
在内镜手术后,结肠直肠多 (CP) 的短期复发是常见的. 年龄,酒精使用,H. pylori感染,多个息肉,静态息肉和腺瘤类型是关键的风险因素,为新的预测模型提供信息.
科学领域:
- 胃肠病学 胃肠病学
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 手术创新 在外科创新.
背景情况:
- 结肠直肠多 (CPs) 是结肠直肠癌的前体.
- 内镜手术是CP的首要治疗方法.
- 手术后高短期复发率需要了解风险因素.
研究的目的:
- 确定短期CP复发后内镜手术的独立风险因素.
- 开发和验证一个名ogram预测模型,用于CP复发.
主要方法:
- 对362名接受内镜性多角切除术的患者进行了回顾性分析.
- 后勤回归分析以确定独立的风险因素.
- 使用启动,AUC,校准和决策曲线分析构建和内部验证Nomogram.
主要成果:
- 45.86%的患者在一年内经历了CP复发.
- 确定了独立的危险因素:年龄较大,酒精消费,H. pylori感染,>2个息肉,静态息肉和腺瘤类型.
- 诺米图表显示出良好的分辨率 (AUC=0.73) 和临床实用性,用于风险预测.
结论:
- 多个因素独立地预测了内镜手术后的短期结直肠多复发.
- 开发的诺米图为风险分层和管理提供了潜在的临床适用性.
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