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不理想的环境温度对哥伦比亚每日死亡率的影响 2010-2019年

Nicolas Borchers-Arriagada¹, Antonio Gasparrini², Laura A Rodriguez-Villamizar³

¹Menzies Institute for Medical Research, University of Tasmania, Tasmania, Australia.

Air quality, atmosphere, & health

|September 15, 2025

概括

不理想的温度对哥伦比亚的死亡率有重大影响,热带带来了即时风险,寒冷带来了长期风险. 调查结果强调需要本地化气候变化适应战略.

科学领域:

环境流行病学环境流行病学
公共卫生公共卫生
适应气候变化适应气候变化

背景情况:

非最佳温度对死亡率的不良影响已在全球范围内得到证实.
热带地区的温度与死亡率相关性研究有限.
哥伦比亚的热带气候需要对与温度相关的死亡率进行具体调查.

研究的目的:

估计哥伦比亚环境空气温度与全因死亡率之间的关联.
评估非最佳温度对国家和地方级可归因死亡率的影响.
通过分国家级差异化数据为气候变化适应战略提供信息.

主要方法:

利用了哥伦比亚32个省份 (2010-2019) 的每日温度和死亡率数据.
采用了两阶段分析:时间序列Poisson模型与分布式滞后非线性模型 (DLNM) 和多变量元分析.
计算可归因的死亡人数和热和冷非最佳温度的分数.

主要成果:

在大多数省份观察到严重的急性热影响死亡率,在短暂的延迟时,寒冷的影响最小.
与热量相关的死亡风险在极端温度 (滞后0) 的日子达到峰值,并在第三天下降.
热 (0-7天延迟) 和冷 (0-28天延迟) 的国家级可归因分数较高,部门间异质性较大.

结论:

在哥伦比亚,非最佳的温度,特别是热量,造成了严重的死亡风险.
低温在较长的滞后期内对死亡率做出了重大贡献.
在哥伦比亚减轻气候变化对健康的影响方面,分化适应战略至关重要.

关键词:

可归因风险是指可归因的风险.哥伦比亚哥伦比亚哥伦比亚哥伦比亚哥伦比亚极端的热量极端的热量死亡率死亡率死亡率温度温度是指温度.时间序列时间序列

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