结核病干预措施的潜在影响,成本和成本效益 - 一个建模练习
Katherine C Horton1,2, Alvaro Schwalb1,2,3, Martin J Harker1,2,4
1TB Modelling Group, TB Centre, LSHTM, London, UK.
medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
|September 15, 2025
概括
针对性结核病 (TB) 的干预措施,如社区查和疫苗接种,显示出显著的人口影响和成本效益. 扩大超出临床护理范围的努力对于结核病控制至关重要,需要政策和资金的转变.
科学领域:
- 全球健康 全球健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
背景情况:
- 结核病 (TB) 的干预措施在影响和成本效益方面存在很大差异.
- 比较往往缺乏,特别是在不同的流行病学环境中.
- 了解人口层面的影响和经济可行性对于结核病控制至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较不同结核病干预措施对人口的影响和成本效益.
- 评估巴西,印度和南非的干预措施,这些国家有不同的结核病负担.
- 为有效的结核病控制战略提供政策和资金.
主要方法:
- 一个确定性结核病模型与巴西,印度和南非的流行病学数据进行校准.
- 模拟了七种干预措施 (预防,查,治疗,监狱查,营养补充).
- 标准化扩展,覆盖率 (80%) 和疗效数据被用来估计到2050年的影响和ICER.
主要成果:
- 疫苗接种,社区范围的查和监狱查显示了最大的影响 (>10%的TB发作被避免).
- 缩短耐药结核病治疗节省了成本;巴西的监狱查和印度的营养补充剂具有较低的ICER.
- 社区范围的查和结核病疫苗接种活动比国内结核病预防治疗更具成本效益.
结论:
- 具有高影响力的结核病干预措施可以具有成本效益.
- 有效的策略需要针对传统医疗机构以外的人群.
- 为了实现结核病控制潜力,资金,政策和产品开发的转变是必要的.
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