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疫苗接种策略的成本效益,以控制英格兰未来的mopox疫情:一个建模研究
Xu-Sheng Zhang1, Siwaporn Niyomsri2, Sema Mandal3,4,5,6
1Statistics, Modelling and Economics, Data, Analytics & Surveillance, UK Health Security Agency, London, UK.
The Lancet regional health. Europe
|September 15, 2025
概括
对高风险的同性恋和双性恋与男性发生性关系的男性 (GBMSM) 进行联合预防性和反应性mopox疫苗接种策略是节省成本的. 这种方法最大限度地减少了未来的mopox爆发,并最大限度地提高了质量调整寿命年 (QALY).
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
背景情况:
- 2022年全球爆发的mopox疫情主要影响与男性发生性关系的同性恋和双性恋男性 (GBMSM).
- 在英格兰,mopox传播通过行为改变和高风险GBMSM的疫苗接种来控制.
- 马波克斯病毒继续在全球传播,因此需要制定预防未来疫情的战略.
研究的目的:
- 评估最具成本效益的疫苗接种策略,以尽量减少英格兰未来的mopox疫情.
- 为了比较不同的疫苗接种策略,包括反应性和预防性方法,与没有疫苗接种.
- 评估在10年内对GBMSM进行mopox疫苗接种的经济影响.
主要方法:
- 在GBMSM中模拟mopox传输的数学模型的开发.
- 估计各种疫苗接种策略所获得的每年质量调整生命年 (QALY) 的成本.
- 与没有接种疫苗的场景相比,反应性,预防性和联合疫苗接种策略的比较,考虑疫苗的有效性和成本.
主要成果:
- 所有的疫苗接种策略都比不接种疫苗更具成本效益,减少了疫情爆发并增加了QALYs.
- 在疫情爆发期间,将持续预防性疫苗接种与反应性疫苗接种相结合的策略是最具成本效益的,节省了880万英,并在10年内获得了108.6个QALY.
- 即使疫苗成本较高 (每剂330英),疫苗接种仍然具有成本效益,如果排除公共卫生响应成本,疫苗成本低于每剂110英,则可以节省成本.
结论:
- 针对高风险的GBMSM进行有针对性的疫苗接种是一种节省成本的策略,可以防止未来的mopox疫情.
- 预防性和反应性疫苗接种的结合方法提供了成本效益和公共卫生效益的最佳平衡.
- 持续的监测和疫苗接种计划对于在风险人群中持续控制mpox至关重要.
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