热带气旋在较温暖的相对海面温度下扩张得更快
Danyang Wang1, Daniel R Chavas1, Benjamin A Schenkel2,3,4
1Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907.
概括
热带气旋扩张速度随着相对海面温度 (SST) 的增加而增加. 这表明未来风暴的大小和沿海风险可能更多地取决于变暖模式,而不是整体全球变暖.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 预计热带气旋将随着全球变暖而加剧.
- 有限的研究存在于热带气旋是否也会随着变暖而扩张得更快.
- 最近的理论将峰值风暴扩张率与海面温度 (SST) 联系起来.
研究的目的:
- 为了调查热带气旋扩张率是否随着变暖而增加.
- 测试假设,峰值膨胀率取决于相对的SST (SST与热带平均值的差异).
主要方法:
- 对历史观测数据的分析,重点关注SST变化作为相对的SST.
- 使用重新分析和最佳轨道观测数据集.
- 与统一的SST水上行星模拟进行比较.
主要成果:
- 平均和峰值热带气旋扩张率都会随着全球和个别盆地的相对SST系统地增加.
- 观察到的扩张率的增加在不同的数据集中是强大的.
- 模拟表明对绝对SST的依赖较弱,突出了相对SST的重要性.
结论:
- 相对的SST,而不是绝对的SST,是热带气旋扩张率变化的主要驱动因素.
- 平均全球变暖可能不会显著改变风暴大小动态.
- 海洋表面变暖的模式对于预测未来风暴的大小和相关的沿海风险至关重要.
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