潜在的儿童结核病发病率和因国际卫生援助支持的计划中断而导致的死亡,2025-34:数学建模研究
Nicolas A Menzies1, Tyler S Brown2, Jeffrey W Imai-Eaton3
1Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
The Lancet. Child & adolescent health
|September 15, 2025
概括
削减全球卫生援助可能会导致数百万额外的儿童结核病病例和死亡. 恢复结核病 (TB) 和艾滋病毒计划的资金对于防止儿童结核病死亡率显著增加至关重要.
科学领域:
- 全球健康 全球健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
背景情况:
- 儿童面临结核病 (TB) 死亡率不成比例的高风险.
- 低收入和中等收入国家目前的结核病和艾滋病毒计划严重依赖国际卫生援助.
研究的目的:
- 估计2025年至2034年间儿童结核病病例和死亡人数的潜在增加.
- 评估停止美国双边来源和全球基金的卫生援助的影响.
主要方法:
- 在130个国家利用结核病和艾滋病毒的传播动态模型.
- 模拟结核病和艾滋病毒治疗服务的资金减少场景.
- 根据各种援助撤销场景,预计儿童结核病发病率和死亡率.
主要成果:
- 停止美国援助可能会导致250万额外的儿科结核病例和34万死亡.
- 如果美国和全球基金组织联合撤回支持,可能会导致890万新增病例和150万死亡.
- 非洲和东南亚地区面临着最大的影响;在2026年恢复服务可以显著减少过度死亡.
结论:
- 削减结核病和艾滋病毒计划的卫生援助,可能会导致数百万儿童结核病病例和死亡.
- 需要采取紧急行动恢复资金和服务,以防止儿童结核病负担大幅增加.
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