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基于MaxEnt建模的中国Tirpitzia sinensis潜在分布的预测

Yaling Mao¹, Xiaoxin Tang², Wei Shi¹

¹Key Laboratory of National Forestry and Grassland Administration On Biodiversity Conservation in Karst Mountainous Areas of Southwestern China, College of Life Science, Guizhou Normal University, Guiyang, 550001, Guizhou Province, China.

Environmental monitoring and assessment

|September 15, 2025

概括

Tirpitzia sinensis是一种药用植物,在中国有很大的适合面积. 预计气候变化将扩大其向北的分布,转移到湖南和湖北省.

科学领域:

生态生态学生态生态学
生物地理学生物地理学生物地理学
保护生物学保护生物学

背景情况:

Tirpitzia sinensis是一种传统的药用植物,具有针对血液循环,胀,疼痛和骨愈合的记录治疗特性.
了解药用植物的分布对于可持续的收获和保护工作至关重要.

研究的目的:

预测Tirpitzia sinensis在中国的当前和未来分布情况.
确定影响其分布的关键气候因素.
评估未来气候变化对其息地的影响.

主要方法:

使用174个发生记录的MaxEnt模型进行物种分布建模.
纳入10个环境变量进行预测分析.
使用ArcGIS软件进行空间分析和可视化.

主要成果:

马克森特模型显示高精度 (AUC = 0.985).
目前适合息地的面积为1,869,438平方公里 (占中国面积的19.47%),集中在西南省份.
关键的气候因素包括最温暖的季度降水量 (bio18) 和最冷的月份最低温度 (bio06).

结论:

Tirpitzia sinensis在中国拥有相当大的当前适合分布.
预计未来的气候变化将扩大并将物种的范围向北移动.
保护战略可能需要适应这些预测范围的变化,特别是在湖南和湖北省.

关键词:

这里是T. sinensis的遗址.气候变化气候变化气候变化环境因素环境因素最大模型的最大模型.潜在的分布区域可能是分布区域.

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