建模行为变化和疫苗接种在呼吸道病毒的传播与同时感染的模型
Bruno Buonomo1, Emanuela Penitente2
1Department of Mathematics and Applications, University of Naples Federico II, via Cintia, I-80126, Naples, Italy. buonomo@unina.it.
Journal of mathematical biology
|September 16, 2025
概括
人类行为受到信息和谣言的影响,影响呼吸道病毒的传播. 季节性增加了流行高峰,因为减少的疫苗接种率超过了传播的好处.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 呼吸系统病毒带来了重大的公共卫生挑战.
- 同时感染多种呼吸道病毒可能会使疾病动态复杂化.
- 人类的行为和信息显著影响疾病的传播.
研究的目的:
- 模拟人类行为变化对两种共感染性呼吸道病毒传播的影响.
- 分析非药物干预,疫苗接种和季节性对疾病动态的影响.
- 调查信息和谣言在塑造公共卫生反应中的作用.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个数学模型,结合了基于信息和谣言的人类行为选择.
- 利用分叉理论对模型平衡 (特有和共特有) 的定性分析.
- 将疫苗接种动态和季节性函数 (双状态开关) 纳入模型.
主要成果:
- 信息和谣言显著影响疾病动态和平衡的稳定性.
- 接种疫苗的坚持受到社区接种疫苗覆盖率信息的影响.
- 季节性导致流行率高峰增加,疫苗接种率下降的负面影响比传播率下降的负面影响更大.
结论:
- 人类对信息的行为反应对于控制呼吸道病毒传播至关重要.
- 季节性加剧了疾病的流行,突出了持续的疫苗接种工作的重要性.
- 数学建模为复杂的流行病学动态和干预策略提供了宝贵的见解.
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