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Updated: Jan 17, 2026

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework

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一个集成的贝叶斯式水力动力学框架,用于量化设计洪水估计和洪水危险映射中的评级曲线不确定性,在数据稀缺的城市地区

Tanmoy Das¹, Subhasish Das¹

¹School of Water Resources Engineering, Jadavpur University, Kolkata 700032, West Bengal, India.

|September 17, 2025

概括

这项研究引入了一个新的框架,通过将贝叶斯式河流排放模型与水力动力学模拟相结合,改进洪水危险映射. 它增强了在数据稀缺地区的设计洪水估计和基础设施规划.

科学领域:

水文与水资源工程水文与水资源工程
环境建模环境建模
地理空间分析的研究.

背景情况:

河流排放的不确定性,主要来自评级曲线的限制,显著影响水文和水力动力学建模的准确性.
现有的洪水估计和绘制方法往往不能充分考虑评级曲线的不确定性.
准确的洪水危险评估对于有效的基础设施设计和洪水平原管理至关重要,特别是在脆弱的地区.

研究的目的:

开发和验证一个整合贝叶斯评级曲线模型 (BaRatin),洪水频率分析 (FFA) 和合水力动力学模型的框架.
通过建模链量化和传播排放不确定性,以提高设计洪水估计和洪水危险映射.
为改善基础设施提供建议,以减轻印度加塔尔地区的洪水风险.

主要方法:

使用排放测量和液压知识,为希拉巴提河开发一个静止贝叶斯评分曲线模型 (BaRatin).
应用基于L时刻的洪水频率分析 (FFA) 来估计洪水的大小.
将1D-2D水力动力学模型 (HEC-RAS) 与FFA和BaRatin输出结合起来,以模拟不确定性下的洪水淹没情况.
从评级曲线通过所有建模阶段传播可信区间 (2.5%和97.5%).

主要成果:

综合框架成功量化了排放不确定性及其对洪水危险映射的影响.
洪水频率分析表明,特定的回归期洪水可能会破坏或超越现有的堤防.
水力动力学模拟准确地重现了历史洪水事件,并预测了加塔尔100年洪水事件的大量洪水.
100年洪水模拟预测了51.90平方公里的洪水,在48.844平方公里和52.217平方公里之间有95%可信度的间隔.

结论:

开发的框架为在不确定性条件下进行洪水危险评估提供了强大的方法,对数据稀缺的地区尤其有利.
建议包括对西拉巴提河进行具体的堤防高度提升,以减轻100年洪水风险.
该研究强调了将评级曲线的不确定性纳入水文和水力动力学建模中的重要性,以实现可靠的基础设施设计和水资源管理.

关键词:

贝叶斯的评级曲线 (BaRatin)洪水频率分析 (FFA) 是指洪水频率分析.这就是HEC-RAS.液压洪水建模的水力模型这就是L-时刻.阶段性放免费的不确定性

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