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[成经济区土地利用变化的多场景模拟及其对碳储量的影响]
Fang Wang1, Jing Li1, Jian Wang2
1School of Geography and Resource Science, Neijiang Normal University, Neijiang 641100, China.
Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue
|September 17, 2025
概括
成都-重庆经济区的土地利用变化影响了从1990年到2020年的碳储量. 未来的情景预测,在自然和城市发展下,碳储量显著下降,但随着生态保护而增加.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 遥感 遥感 遥感 遥感
- 地理信息系统 (GIS) 是指地理信息系统.
背景情况:
- 土地利用变化对全球碳循环和碳储存产生重大影响.
- 了解区域土地利用对碳储备的影响对于有效的土地利用政策至关重要.
- 成都-重庆经济区是分析这些动态的关键案例研究.
研究的目的:
- 估计土地利用变化对成都-重庆经济区从1990年到2020年碳储备的影响.
- 根据各种发展情景,预测未来的土地利用变化及其对到2030年碳储量的影响.
- 为可持续的土地利用规划提供数据驱动的决策支持.
主要方法:
- 利用生态系统服务和权衡的综合估值 (InVEST) 模型来量化历史碳储备变化.
- 采用土地使用变化模式和空间显式模拟 (PLUS) 模型来预测未来的土地使用场景.
- 从1990年到2020年分析了土地使用演变特征.
主要成果:
- 从1990年到2020年,耕地和森林占主导地位,但出现下降,而建筑用地,水和未使用的土地扩大,森林土地转让显著减少了总碳储量.
- 碳储量呈现出"低中,高环境"模式和"下降-上升-下降"趋势,耕地和森林占总储量的90%左右.
- 未来的预测 (2030年) 表明耕地,水和未使用的土地面积正在减少,草原增加,在城市发展下建筑用地大幅扩张;森林土地仅在生态保护下增加.
结论:
- 1990-2020年间的土地利用变化导致碳储量净减少,主要是由于森林土地的转化.
- 未来的土地使用场景显示,在自然和城市发展路径下,碳储量大幅下降.
- 生态保护场景提供了一个有希望的战略,通过尽量减少土地转型来显著增加碳储量.
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