[基于PLUS-INVEST模型的山西省多场景土地覆盖模拟和碳库存评估]
Ming-Yue Cheng1, Guang-Xing Ji1,2, Jun-Chang Huang1,2
1College of Resources and Environment, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450046, China.
Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue
|September 17, 2025
概括
这项研究分析了不同共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 的西省未来的土地利用变化和碳库存. 结果表明,SSP126最适合可持续发展,碳储量集中在森林和草原.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 全球社会经济发展增加了环境压力,特别是化石燃料排放 (CO2) 的环境压力.
- 中国的双碳目标需要制定减轻环境影响的战略.
- 西省拥有广泛的耕地,森林和草原,是研究土地利用和碳库存动态的关键地区.
研究的目的:
- 根据各种共享社会经济路径 (SSP),在2030-2050年期间在西省预测土地使用类型的变化.
- 分析与这些土地使用转移相对应的西省碳库变化的特征.
- 在双碳战略框架内,为西省的生态系统碳库存管理提供理论指导.
主要方法:
- 利用了IPCC的共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 气体排放场景.
- 在2030-2050年期间,模拟了西省未来的土地使用类型变化.
- 根据土地使用类型分析和绘制碳库存的空间分布和度.
主要成果:
- 土地使用变化因SSP而异:SSP126显示增加了林地,减少了耕地/草地;SSP245/SSP585显示增加了耕地/建筑用地,减少了林地/草地.
- 西省的碳储量在森林和草原中最高.
- 空间分析显示,西南部山区的碳储量高,洛斯高原/广平原的碳储量中等,北部沙漠边缘和河流盆地的碳储量低.
结论:
- 代表低排放的可持续社会经济发展的SSP126情景是西省最适合的发展道路.
- 碳库存主要位于高密度地区,如林地和草原.
- 根据SSP585情景,未来的低碳储备区域预计将比SSP126和SSP245.5更大.
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