[在北京-天津沙风源区碳储存变化和多场景预测使用结合PLUS-INVEST模型]
Yan Huang1, Xiao-Man Liu1, Bing-Bing Gao1,2
1Satellite Application Center for Ecology and Environment, MEE, Beijing 100094, China.
Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue
|September 17, 2025
概括
北京-天津沙风源区的土地利用变化,从2000年到2020年增加了生态系统的碳储存. 生态保护场景对未来的碳储存是最佳的,突出显示了谷物换绿计划的成功.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 遥感 遥感 遥感 遥感
背景情况:
- 区域土地利用变化对生态系统碳储存和可持续发展产生重大影响.
- 北京-天津沙风源区 (BTRSSR) 是粮食换绿计划下的生态恢复的关键区域.
研究的目的:
- 分析2000年至2020年BTRSSR的时空土地利用动态和碳储存变化.
- 根据不同的发展情景,预测到2040年的土地使用模式和碳储存.
- 评估谷物换绿计划对生态系统碳储存的有效性.
主要方法:
- 对2000年至2020年土地使用数据的分析.
- 应用InVEST模型来评估碳储存动态.
- 在自然,城市和生态保护场景下,利用马尔科夫-PLUS模型对未来的土地使用和碳储存预测.
主要成果:
- 土地利用变化包括扩大森林,草原,灌木和建筑用地,缩小水体,耕地和未使用的土地.
- 2000年至2020年间,生态系统的总碳储量增加了7.92万,主要是由于森林和草原的增加.
- 未来的预测表明,在自然和生态保护场景下,碳储存的持续增加,后者产生最高的储存量 (4,243.65 Tg).
结论:
- 谷物换绿计划有效地增强了BTRSSR的生态系统碳储存.
- 土地利用管理政策,特别是生态恢复,对于改善区域碳捕获至关重要.
- 生态保护场景代表了最大化碳储存和促进该地区可持续发展的最佳发展途径.
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