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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
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[在长江上流盆地进行生态风险评估和生态区划建设]
Bin-Sen Chen1, Dan-Jing Yuan2, Yi-Ran Mao3
1School of Economics and Management, Yunnan Minzu University, Kunming 650504, China.
Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue
|September 17, 2025
概括
长江上游的生态风险呈现波动趋势,土地利用变化影响生态系统服务. 该研究强调了稳定的生态区,为这一重要盆地的可持续发展提供了洞察力.
科学领域:
- 环境科学与生态学
- 地理信息系统 (GIS) 是指地理信息系统.
- 可持续发展 可持续发展 可持续发展
背景情况:
- 长江上游是关键的生态屏障和水源,面临阻碍可持续发展的生态风险.
- 了解生态系统服务和生态风险的空间和时间动态对于区域环境安全至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估长江上游的生态环境安全状况.
- 探索生态系统服务提供价值和生态风险指数的空间和时间演变模式.
- 根据生态系统服务价值和生态风险构建和分析四种类型的生态区.
主要方法:
- 1980年至2020年土地使用数据的分析.
- 土地使用转让矩阵,生态系统服务价值评估模型和生态风险指数模型的应用.
- 利用Z-score标准化进行生态区分类.
主要成果:
- 观察到大量的土地使用变化,未使用和耕地大幅减少.
- 森林土地的转移率最高,表明土地覆盖面的动态变化.
- 生态系统服务价值最初下降,然后增加,空间分布与人口密度相关.
- 生态风险上升,然后下降,转向中等风险,具有明显的空间模式.
- 生态区在很大程度上保持稳定,以高生态系统服务价值低生态风险地区为主.
结论:
- 土地利用变化对长江上游的生态系统服务价值和生态风险产生重大影响.
- 确定的生态区为有针对性的环境管理和保护战略提供了框架.
- 这些发现为加强生态安全和促进长江流域协调经济环境发展提供了关键的理论参考.
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