SARS-CoV-2 的神秘传播破坏了有针对性的旅行限制
Praneeth Gangavarapu1, Jassim Mohammed Abdo2,3, Edyth Parker1
1Department of Translational Medicine, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA, USA.
medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
|September 18, 2025
概括
旅行限制在控制西亚SARS-CoV-2变种传播方面无效. 基因组监测数据显示,尽管实施了旅行禁令,但Delta和Omicron两种变种都进入并在伊拉克传播.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 基因组监测 基因组监测
- 病毒类地质学 病毒类地质学
背景情况:
- 旅行限制在控制新型病毒变种传播方面的有效性尚未得到充分研究,特别是在基因组监测有限的地区.
- 西亚国家在2021年对SARS-CoV-2病例的排序不到1%,突出显示了监测差距.
研究的目的:
- 评估西亚旅行限制的有效性,特别是伊拉克对印度的旅行禁令和旅游旅行限制.
- 分析这些限制对SARS-CoV-2变种 (Delta和Omicron) 的引入和社区传播的影响.
主要方法:
- 从伊拉克杜霍克的临床样本中生成了535个SARS-CoV-2全基因组序列 (2021年6月至2022年3月).
- 采用离散的贝叶斯族原始地理模型来重建时间空间病毒传播模式.
- 评估了变种引入的时间,社区传播的开始,以及与旅行限制相关的地理来源.
主要成果:
- 在旅行禁令出台前三个月,Delta变种被引入伊拉克,主要来自西亚和南亚.
- 尽管有现有的旅游旅行限制,但Omicron变种进入伊拉克.
- 这两种变种都在伊拉克境内确立了社区传播,这表明旅行限制在防止传播方面无效.
结论:
- 旅行限制在减轻伊拉克和全球SARS-CoV-2变种的引入和传播方面表现出有限的有效性.
- 这些发现挑战了旅行限制作为防止新型病毒变种引入的主要措施的整体有用性.
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