一种新的残留方法来估计无证人口
Robert Warren1, John Robert Warren2, Ping Zheng3
1Center for Migration Studies of New York, New York, NY, USA.
The International migration review
|September 18, 2025
概括
由于移民数据过时,估计美国的无证人口具有挑战性. 本研究引入了使用美国社区调查 (ACS) 进行更当前的年度估计的改进方法.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 人口研究 人口研究
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
背景情况:
- 美国的无证人口在2008年之前大幅增长,然后到2010年略有下降.
- 2010年后的估计有所不同,组织报告增加或下降.
- 差异源于不同组织使用的不同和过时的移民数据.
研究的目的:
- 提出一种改进的剩余方法,用于更新无证人口的年度估计.
- 通过纳入时间变化的移民数据来解决当前估计方法的局限性.
- 通过使用美国社区调查 (ACS) 及时和可靠地估计无证人口.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种改进的剩余方法来估计无证人口.
- 在计算中纳入了随时间变化的移民估计.
- 使用美国社区调查 (ACS) 的数据进行年度更新.
主要成果:
- 拟议的方法允许在ACS数据发布后立即更新估计.
- 该方法促进了对无证人口的更准确和更准确的估计.
- 提供了一个统一的年度更新人口统计估计的框架.
结论:
- 关于无证人口的可靠,最新的信息对于政策制定和评估至关重要.
- 改进的方法为当前估计的差异提供了解决方案.
- 这种方法确保了估计所需的数据与数据收集同时可用.
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