高龄患者急性前兆细胞白血病的生存分析和预后模型构建:基于SEER数据库的回顾性研究
Jinhong Jiang1, Yonghua Liu2, Yuxiao Zeng2
1Department of Hematology, The Sixth Hospital Affiliated to Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, 323000, China. jjhongjiang@163.com.
Annals of hematology
|September 18, 2025
概括
患有急性肌肉细胞白血病 (APL) 的老年患者将年龄,诊断年份和化疗作为死亡的独立风险因素. APL是死亡的主要原因,一个新的预后模型显示出良好的临床预测价值.
科学领域:
- 血液学 血液学 血液学
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 急性促细胞白血病 (APL) 是白血病的一个独特的亚型.
- 了解老年APL患者的生存和死亡模式对于改善结果至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析老年APL患者的生存率和死亡原因.
- 构建和验证一个预后模型,用于预测这一群体的生存率.
主要方法:
- 在2000年至2020年期间使用SEER数据库诊断的1723名老年APL患者的回顾性分析.
- 数据分为训练和测试集,另外还有一个医院测试集.
- 用于因素识别和预后模型构建和验证的COX回归分析.
主要成果:
- 年龄,诊断年份和化疗被确定为老年APL患者死亡率的独立预测因素.
- 急性促细胞白血病 (APL) 是分析患者的主要死亡原因.
- 开发的预后模型显示了0.5年和2年整体生存期的显著预测值,AUC值分别为0.797和0.784.
结论:
- 年龄,诊断年份和化疗是老年APL患者死亡的重要独立风险因素.
- 在这个人口群体中,APL本身是死亡的主要原因.
- 构建的预后模型为预测老年APL患者的存活率提供了宝贵的临床实用性.
更多相关视频
相关概念视频
Cancer Survival Analysis
650
Cancer survival analysis focuses on quantifying and interpreting the time from a key starting point, such as diagnosis or the initiation of treatment, to a specific endpoint, such as remission or death. This analysis provides critical insights into treatment effectiveness and factors that influence patient outcomes, helping to shape clinical decisions and guide prognostic evaluations. A cornerstone of oncology research, survival analysis tackles the challenges of skewed, non-normally...
650
Comparing the Survival Analysis of Two or More Groups
561
Survival analysis is a cornerstone of medical research, used to evaluate the time until an event of interest occurs, such as death, disease recurrence, or recovery. Unlike standard statistical methods, survival analysis is particularly adept at handling censored data—instances where the event has not occurred for some participants by the end of the study or remains unobserved. To address these unique challenges, specialized techniques like the Kaplan-Meier estimator, log-rank test, and...
561
Actuarial Approach
290
The actuarial approach, a statistical method originally developed for life insurance risk assessment, is widely used to calculate survival rates in clinical and population studies. This method accounts for participants lost to follow-up or those who die from causes unrelated to the study, ensuring a more accurate representation of survival probabilities.
Consider the example of a high-risk surgical procedure with significant early-stage mortality. A two-year clinical study is conducted,...
Consider the example of a high-risk surgical procedure with significant early-stage mortality. A two-year clinical study is conducted,...
290
Kaplan-Meier Approach
577
The Kaplan-Meier estimator is a non-parametric method used to estimate the survival function from time-to-event data. In medical research, it is frequently employed to measure the proportion of patients surviving for a certain period after treatment. This estimator is fundamental in analyzing time-to-event data, making it indispensable in clinical trials, epidemiological studies, and reliability engineering. By estimating survival probabilities, researchers can evaluate treatment effectiveness,...
577
Assumptions of Survival Analysis
398
Survival models analyze the time until one or more events occur, such as death in biological organisms or failure in mechanical systems. These models are widely used across fields like medicine, biology, engineering, and public health to study time-to-event phenomena. To ensure accurate results, survival analysis relies on key assumptions and careful study design.
398
Introduction To Survival Analysis
752
Survival analysis is a statistical method used to study time-to-event data, where the "event" might represent outcomes like death, disease relapse, system failure, or recovery. A unique feature of survival data is censoring, which occurs when the event of interest has not been observed for some individuals during the study period. This requires specialized techniques to handle incomplete data effectively.
The primary goal of survival analysis is to estimate survival time—the time...
The primary goal of survival analysis is to estimate survival time—the time...
752


