美国COVID-19负担的场景预测,2024-2025年
Sara L Loo1, Sung-Mok Jung2, Lucie Contamin3
1Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland.
JAMA network open
|September 18, 2025
概括
每年为所有个人 (而不仅仅是高风险群体) 接种COVID-19疫苗可以挽救数千人生命. 预测显示,更广泛的疫苗推显著减少住院和死亡,即使有免疫逃逸.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 传染病建模 传染病建模
背景情况:
- 在美国,COVID-19继续构成重大公共卫生负担.
- 年度COVID-19疫苗接种的最佳策略仍然是持续讨论和研究的主题.
研究的目的:
- 预测从2024年4月到2025年4月,美国的COVID-19疾病负担.
- 评估不同疫苗推水平 (没有,只有高风险,所有符合条件) 和免疫逃生场景对疾病负担的影响.
- 评估疫苗推在减轻COVID-19影响方面的潜在好处.
主要方法:
- 采用决策分析建模方法,利用来自九个贡献团队的整体预测.
- 场景结合了不同程度的免疫逃脱 (每年20%和50%) 和不同的疫苗推策略.
- 假设包括75%的疫苗对住院治疗的有效性和特定的年龄和国家覆盖率.
主要成果:
- 如果没有接种疫苗,预计COVID-19将在2024年4月至2025年4月期间导致大约814,000例住院治疗和54,000例死亡.
- 预计仅为高风险群体接种疫苗可以预防7.6万例住院和7,000例死亡.
- 一个普遍的疫苗推预计可以预防额外的11.000次住院和1000例死亡 65岁及以上的个人与高风险疫苗接种单独相比.
结论:
- 虽然接种高风险个体的疫苗提供了巨大的好处,但通用疫苗推有可能挽救更多生命.
- 疫苗接种在避免COVID-19负担方面的好处在不同的免疫逃脱场景中仍然强大.
- 这些发现强调了广泛的疫苗供应的重要性,并为所有符合条件的个人推疫苗,以最大限度地影响公共卫生.
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