在全球热点地区绘制冠状病毒泄漏的潜在风险
R Sedricke Lapuz1, Ada Chornelia1, Alice C Hughes1,2
1School of Biological Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.
Global change biology
|September 18, 2025
概括
亚洲的息地碎片化增加了来自蝙蝠的动物传染性溢出风险. 确定了印度支那和南亚的热点,突出了未来流行病的脆弱地区.
科学领域:
- 生态学和进化生物学.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
背景情况:
- 蝙蝠是许多病毒的存储库,包括像SARS-CoV-1和SARS-CoV-2这样的冠状病毒.
- 增加息地丧失和碎片化增加了动物传染病溢出事件的风险.
- 马蝙蝠 (Rhinolophus属) 作为动物传染病原体的关键宿主.
研究的目的:
- 确定在南亚和东南亚潜在的动物感染溢出和流行病风险热点.
- 评估景观特征和宿主多样性对冠状病毒出现风险的影响.
- 模拟从已确定的溢出风险区域传播的流行病.
主要方法:
- 综合的Rhinolophid物种分布,森林碎片化数据和人类人口密度.
- 分析了两个情景:基线森林覆盖面和因基础设施而增加的碎片化.
- 利用网络模型来模拟从溢出热点传播的流行病.
主要成果:
- 溢出风险的热点集中在印度支那和中国南部.
- 高宿主物种丰富度和森林碎片化与溢出风险增加相关.
- 流行病传播模拟确定了孟加拉国和印度东北部的风险集群.
结论:
- 亚洲,特别是印度支那和南亚,面临着冠状病毒出现和传播的高风险.
- 息地碎片化和人类人口密度是动物病传播的关键因素.
- 多学科的方法对于生态系统健康,公共卫生和有针对性的疾病监测至关重要.
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