在人口变化下,中国西部农村教师的需求结构预测和适应路径
Yang Lv1, Binyu Hao1, Xuemei Zhang1
1College of Teachers, Chengdu University, Chengdu, China.
PloS one
|September 18, 2025
概括
由于人口变化,中国西部农村教师需求正在下降,这影响了教育公平. 战略包括调整人员配置和加强教师培训,以实现可持续的优质教育.
科学领域:
- 教育政策 教育政策
- 人口学分析 人口学分析
- 农村发展 农村发展
背景情况:
- 教育公平和高质量的教育依赖于强大的农村教师劳动力.
- 人口趋势显著影响农村地区的资源分配和教师需求.
研究的目的:
- 根据学龄人口变化,预测中国西部农村教师需求 (2024-2040年).
- 分析人口变化对农村教育资源和教师劳动力结构的影响.
主要方法:
- 采用莱斯利模型和特定年龄阶段进阶率方法进行人口预测.
- 利用了第七次全国人口普查和区域统计年鉴的数据.
- 占据了中国12个西部省份的教育集中和人口趋势.
主要成果:
- 人口变化导致中国西部农村教育资源减少.
- 随着学龄人口的减少,教师劳动力正在减少,特别是在学前教育中.
- 减少教师需求加剧了教育资源分配的不平衡.
结论:
- 应对人口缩需要根据人口预测调整人员配置标准.
- 加强跨阶段的专业发展和现代化教师培训至关重要.
- 需要采取积极的战略,以确保农村教育的可持续质量,以应对人口结构的变化.
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