相关实验视频
在智能电网中同时预测电价和负载的双模型方法:比较稀疏编码器NAR和GA优化的LSTM
Nasir Nauman1,2,3, Sheeraz Akram1,2,4, Muhammad Rashid5
1Faculty of Computer Science & Information Technology, The Superior University, Lahore, Pakistan.
PloS one
|September 18, 2025
概括
通过两种新的深度循环神经网络模型,在智能电网中实现了精确的电力负载和价格预测. 这些模型,SENARX和GA-LSTM,大大改进了传统的实时电网管理方法.
科学领域:
- 电气工程 电气工程
- 人工智能的人工智能
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 准确的电力负载和价格预测对于智能电网的稳定性和效率至关重要.
- 负载和价格之间的相互依赖对传统预测模型构成重大挑战.
- 现有的方法经常与能源市场的动态和不确定的性质作斗争.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估用于并发电力负载和价格预测的新型深度循环神经网络模型.
- 将拟议模型的性能与已建立的基准方法进行比较.
- 评估这些模型是否适用于智能电网中的实时应用.
主要方法:
- 实施了两个深度循环神经网络模型:Sparse Encoder非线性自行回归网络 (SENARX) 和基因算法集成的长短期记忆 (GA-LSTM).
- SENARX使用稀疏编码器进行特征提取和非线性自回归,使用外源输入.
- GA-LSTM采用遗传算法优化来增强长期和短期记忆的预测能力.
- 使用ISO新英格兰,EPEX,IEX和JEPX市场数据进行评估.
主要成果:
- 与ARIMA,SVM和贝叶斯网络等基准模型相比,SENARX和GA-LSTM都显示出更高的预测准确度.
- 塞纳克斯实现了平均绝对百分比误差 (MAPE) 的3.82% (EPEX) 和4.13% (IEX).
- GA-LSTM 实现了 27.02 兆瓦 (EPEX) 和 29.33 兆瓦 (JEPX) 的根平均平方误差 (RMSE).
- 与ARIMA相比,提出的模型将准确性提高了40%以上.
- 塞纳克斯表现出更快的训练时间和对数据噪声的稳定性,而GA-LSTM显示出更快的融合和更低的错误率.
结论:
- 拟议的SENARX和GA-LSTM模型在智能电网的并发电量负载和价格预测方面取得了重大进展.
- 它们的提高精度,稳定性和效率使得它们非常适合在动态能源市场的实时应用.
- 这些模型为未来的研究提供了有希望的基础,包括在极端市场条件下对性能进行评估.
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