全球Mpox疫情:全面的流行病学评估 (2022-2024)
Shraddha Tiwari1, Thakur Dhakal1, Youhyun Son2
1Department of Life Sciences, Yeungnam University, 38541, Republic of Korea.
Journal of infection and public health
|September 18, 2025
概括
(Mpox) 疫情显示持续传播有限,但存在指数级传播的风险. 全球连接分析显示,这种疾病快速跨境传播,强调需要持续监测和国际合作来控制这种疾病.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 网络分析 网络分析
- 空间分析 空间分析
背景情况:
- 全球麻疹 (Mpox) 爆发是一个重大的公共卫生挑战,在126个地区报告了超过115,000例病例.
- 了解流行病学参数和传播动态对于有效的公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析正在进行的Mpox疫情的基本繁殖数 (R0),翻倍时间,病例死亡率和国家间联系.
- 确定疾病中心并评估全球空间分布模式.
主要方法:
- 使用9天的平均感染期计算R0和翻倍时间.
- 通过相关性和共同发生分析了疫情网络.
- 通过网络中心性和空间自相关性 (莫兰的I) 的测量来评估疾病中心.
主要成果:
- 全球平均R0为1.046,翻倍时间为373.12天,这表明持续传播有限,但可能会呈指数级传播.
- 在全球范围内观察到Mopox病例的适度聚类 (莫兰I = 0.067,p=0.075).
- 检测到有显著的国家间传播,德国,美国和澳大利亚等国家被确定为疾病中心,强调了全球相互联系.
结论:
- 了解Mpox爆发动态,空间分布和连接性对于"一个健康"的方法至关重要.
- 调查结果强调了全球Mopox传播的风险,需要持续的监测,接触者追踪,隔离和国际合作来控制其传播.
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