在模糊不准确的情况下,对霍乱动态的建模和灵敏度分析
Sara Riaz1, Asghar Ali1, Muhammad Munir2
1Department of Mathematics, Mirpur university of science and Technology (MUST), Mirpur 10250, AJK, Pakistan.
概括
这项研究分析了一个模糊的霍乱传播模型,确定了影响疾病传播的关键因素. 治疗和传播率对于控制疫情最为关键.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 模糊的数学 模糊的数学
背景情况:
- 霍乱疫情带来了重大的公共卫生挑战.
- 准确的建模对于有效的疾病控制策略至关重要.
- 模糊的数字方法可以提高流行病学模型的现实性.
研究的目的:
- 在模糊的霍乱传播模型上进行灵敏度分析.
- 通过使用经典和系统灵敏度近似真实世界霍乱疫情.
- 确定霍乱动态中具有影响力的参数.
主要方法:
- 使用模糊数字来表示所有疾病动态参数.
- 分析了模糊模型的经典和系统灵敏度.
- 用图形表示来说明人口的敏感性.
主要成果:
- 易受感染的人群对招募和死亡率很敏感.
- 受感染的人群对免疫损失和传播率很敏感.
- 被治疗和康复的人群对接触,康复和死亡率表现出敏感性.
结论:
- 治疗和疾病传播率是最有影响力的参数.
- 系统灵敏度反映了模糊参数的累积效应.
- 该模型为霍乱爆发分析提供了精细的近似值.
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