美国在气候变化中的野火烟雾暴露和死亡负担
Minghao Qiu1,2,3,4, Jessica Li5, Carlos F Gould6
1School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, USA. minghao.qiu@stonybrook.edu.
Nature
|September 18, 2025
概括
气候变化正在增加美国的野火烟雾细颗粒物 (PM2.5),到2050年每年可能造成超过71,000人死亡. 这些健康影响代表着气候变暖的重大和昂贵的后果.
科学领域:
- 环境科学
- 公共卫生
- 气候科学
背景情况:
- 美国的野火活动正在增加, 预测显示未来气候变化将加速.
- 由于复杂的因果链,了解气候变化对野火活动,烟雾和随后的健康结果的全部影响是具有挑战性的.
- 在气候变化下量化野火烟雾细颗粒物 (PM2.5) 的死亡负担对于公共卫生准备至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 根据预测的气候变化情景,量化美国因野火烟雾细颗粒物 (PM2.5) 的死亡负担.
- 使用美国综合死亡记录估计烟雾PM2.5暴露与死亡率之间的经验关系.
- 预测未来与气候驱动的野火烟雾相关的死亡和经济损失.
主要方法:
- 开发了一组统计和机器学习模型,将气候变量与野火烟雾PM2.5度联系起来.
- 使用美国所有已记录的死亡数据,以经验性地估计烟雾PM2.5死亡关系.
- 在高升温情景下预计的未来死亡负担和经济损失 (SSP3-7.0).
主要成果:
- 在高温情景下,预计到2050年因野火烟雾的每年超额死亡人数可能达到71,420,比2011-2020年平均水平增加73%.
- 据估计,在2026年至2055年期间,累计的过度死亡人数将达到190万.
- 暴露在PM2.5烟雾中的死亡率影响可能持续长达三年,而货币化损害远远超过其他气候驱动损害的估计.
结论:
- 在美国,气候驱动的野火烟雾造成的死亡率严重且日益增加.
- 野火烟雾对健康的影响是气候变化的重要和昂贵的后果.
- 迫切需要采取缓解和适应策略来应对野火烟雾暴露的风险.
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