全球变暖加剧了野火的健康负担,并重塑了不平等
Junri Zhao1, Bo Zheng2,3, Philippe Ciais4
1Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Ecological Remediation and Carbon Sequestration, Institute of Environment and Ecology, Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen, China.
Nature
|September 18, 2025
概括
全球变暖将加剧野火,增加火灾排放量. 预计到2099年, 野火烟雾死亡人数将增加六倍,
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 环境科学
- 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 全球变暖加剧了野火,增加了温室气体和污染物排放.
- 目前全球野火预测不完整, 在不确定的气候场景下阻碍政策干预.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个可解释的机器学习框架来预测全球燃烧地区和野火排放.
- 量化未来气候变化对火灾活动,过早死亡和火灾引起的颗粒物 (PM2.5) 的辐射强迫的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发一个可解释的机器学习框架.
- 在气候变化情景下预测全球燃烧地区和野火排放量.
- 从火灾引起的PM2.5中预先死亡和辐射强迫的量化.
主要成果:
- 根据共享社会经济路径2-4.5的预测,到2099年火灾碳排放量将增加23%.
- 预计到2099年,因野火烟雾而导致的过早死亡人数将达到140万,增长6倍.
- 预计非洲的火灾死亡人数将增加11倍,而欧洲和美国的死亡人数将增加一到两倍.
结论:
- 由于气候变化而增加的火灾活动对全球健康构成重大风险.
- 森林火灾带来的健康负担将更加均地分布在全球.
- 协调国际努力至关重要,以应对野火对公众健康和气候日益严重的影响.
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