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用于预测局部晚期直肠癌手术后的特定死亡风险的诺米克图的开发和验证:基于SEER数据库和外部验证队伍的研究

Shufa Tan¹, Shuang Liu¹, Yunyi Yang²

¹School of Intergrative Medicine, Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Tianjin, China.

Cancer control : journal of the Moffitt Cancer Center

|September 18, 2025

概括

一个新的竞争性风险模型准确地预测了局部晚期直肠癌 (LARC) 患者的癌症特异性死亡率. 这种工具有助于临床决策和后续策略,以改善患者的治疗结果.

科学领域:

在瘤学瘤学.
生物统计学生物统计学
流行病学流行病学

背景情况:

结直肠癌是全球重要的健康问题,发病率很高.
局部晚期直肠癌 (LARC) 需要精确的预后工具来有效管理.
现有的预测模型可能无法在LARC中充分捕捉癌症特异性死亡风险.

研究的目的:

开发和验证一种竞争性风险模型,用于估计LARC患者癌症特异性死亡率.
评估开发模型的预测准确性和校准.
确定影响LARC患者非癌症死亡率的因素.

主要方法:

使用SEER数据库 (2010-2015) 进行培训和验证的回顾性队列研究.
包括7608名LARC患者 (III-IV阶段),与天津人民医院的外部验证队列.
开发一个竞争风险模型,使用ROC曲线 (AUC) 和C-统计来评估预测准确度和校准曲线.

主要成果:

开发的竞争性风险模型表现出强大的预测性能,AUC值在培训和验证队列中的不同时间点从0.779到0.792不等.
C-统计证实了该模型对因特定原因死亡率的强大区分能力.
高龄,黑人种族和单身婚姻状况与非癌症死亡风险增加有关.

结论:

开发的竞争性风险模型为预测LARC患者癌症特异性死亡率提供了高准确度和可靠性.
该模型是医生和患者在临床决策和后续计划中的一个有价值的工具.
阳性淋巴结 (LODDS) 的日志概率不是LARC特定死亡率的足够独立预测因素.

关键词:

拉尔克 (LARC) 组织已经开始.塞尔·塞尔 (Seer) 是一个看得见的人.具有竞争力的风险模型.这个名字是名ogramogram.特定死亡率特定死亡率

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