多元模拟用于探索分析选择对反应时间研究中的I型和II型错误的影响
Miklos Bognar1,2, Marton A Varga3, Don van Ravenzwaaij4
1Doctoral School of Psychology, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary. bognar.miklos@ppk.elte.hu.
Behavior research methods
|September 19, 2025
概括
研究人员在数据分析中的自由度可以改变研究结果. 多元模拟揭示了分析选择显著影响结果,突出了需要在认知控制研究的透明度.
科学领域:
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 社会科学 社会科学 社会科学
- 数据分析 数据分析
背景情况:
- 研究人员在数据分析中的自由度带来了挑战,导致社会科学中各种结论.
- 同等性序列效应 (CSE) 是认知控制研究中研究得很好的现象.
研究的目的:
- 提出并演示一个探索性的多元宇宙模拟来评估分析决策路径的灵敏度.
- 实证地比较不同的分析选择及其对研究结果的影响.
主要方法:
- 对常见的,非理论特定的分析决策 (例如,异常值排除,假设测试) 进行文献审查.
- 开发了一个模拟框架,将这些决定纳入其中.
- 产生了2万个模拟数据集,并在50个决策途径中进行了100万次分析.
主要成果:
- 在分析途径之间观察到统计能力和I型错误率的实质差异.
- 某些分析途径存在高虚假阳性率的重大风险.
- 结果表明一致性序列效应 (CSE) 对分析选择的敏感性.
结论:
- 广泛的模拟对于研究数据处理和假设测试在具有高分析可变性的领域至关重要.
- 分析决策的透明度对于强大且可重复的研究至关重要.
- 这种多宇宙模拟方法可以作为面临类似挑战的其他研究领域的典范.
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