用模糊和FAHP模型进行基于部分放电的电缆漏洞排名:在丹麦分发网络中的应用
Mohammad Reza Shadi1, Hamid Mirshekali1, Hamid Reza Shaker1
1SDU Center for Energy Informatics, Maersk Mc-Kinney Moeller Institute, The Faculty of Engineering, University of Southern Denmark, 5230 Odense, Denmark.
Sensors (Basel, Switzerland)
|September 19, 2025
概括
本研究引入了一种新的方法,用于使用模糊逻辑和模糊分析层次过程 (FAHP) 优先考虑地下电缆更换. 它结合了电缆年龄和部分放电 (PD) 数据,以更准确的基于条件的评估.
科学领域:
- 电气工程 电气工程
- 电力系统分析 分析 分析
- 资产管理资产管理.
背景情况:
- 地下电缆的老化对发电系统构成重大风险.
- 目前基于年龄的替换策略不足以评估实际的电缆状况.
- 部分排放 (PDs) 是绝缘降解的关键早期指标.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个强大的框架,根据条件对地下电缆漏洞进行排名.
- 管理电缆年龄和PD数据的不确定性,以改进维护决策.
- 提供一个具有成本效益的,数据驱动的方法来优先考虑电缆更换.
主要方法:
- 模糊逻辑和模糊分析层次过程 (FAHP) 框架的实施.
- 基本数据的整合:电缆年龄和部分放电 (PD) 测量 (峰值,事件计数).
- 使用蒙特卡洛模拟,斯皮尔曼相关性分析和现实世界的操作数据进行验证.
主要成果:
- 拟议的基于FAHP的框架实际上将电缆脆弱性列为不确定性.
- 该方法提供了强大的和一致的结果,改进了传统的基于年龄的策略.
- 使用来自丹麦分销网络和合成PD数据的数据证明了有效性.
结论:
- FAHP框架为基于条件的电缆维护优先级提供了一个可靠的解决方案.
- 这种方法支持公用事业公司在资产管理方面做出更明智,更经济的决策.
- 该研究强调了将PD数据与电缆年龄相结合的重要性,以准确评估脆弱性.
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