在CMIP6未来气候预测下建模侵入性害虫Trogoderma granarium (Coleoptera: Dermestidae) 的潜在分布
Chao Zhao1,2,3, Duangsamorn Suthisut4, Chunqi Bai1,2,3
1National Grain Industry (Storage Insect Pest Control) Technology Innovation Center Henan University of Technology Zhengzhou China.
Ecology and evolution
|September 19, 2025
概括
哈普拉甲虫是一种主要的入侵性害虫,在中国,美国,北非,澳大利亚和阿根廷都有合适的息地. 未来的气候变化可能会导致其分布向北转移,影响害虫管理策略.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 侵入性物种 生物学 生物学
- 农业昆虫学 农业昆虫学
背景情况:
- 哈普拉甲虫 (Trogoderma granarium Everts) 是一个具有全球意义的入侵性储存害虫.
- 了解其潜在分布对于有效的害虫管理和生物安全至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 使用MaxEnt模型预测Khapra甲虫的潜在地理分布.
- 确定影响其分布模式的关键环境因素.
- 在不同的气候变化场景下预测未来的分布变化.
主要方法:
- 使用MaxEnt算法进行物种分布建模.
- 分析环境变量,包括温度和海拔.
- 根据SSP126和SSP585情景,对未来适合息地的预测.
- 中心点分析,以评估范围的变化.
主要成果:
- 目前的气候条件有利于卡普拉甲虫在中国中部/南部,美国南部,北非,澳大利亚南部和阿根廷的种植.
- 最冷月份的最低温度和海拔是主要的环境因素 (贡献超过95%).
- 未来的预测表明,适合息地向北转移,在美国北部,俄罗斯西部,哈萨克斯坦南部和中国北部出现新的地区.
结论:
- 该研究为制定有针对性的害虫监测和隔离策略提供了关键数据.
- 温度和海拔高度等环境因素显著限制了Khapra甲虫的分布.
- 气候变化可能会改变地理范围,需要对这种入侵物种采取适应性管理方法.
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