气候变化下的Allium victorialis L.潜在分布和种植区域的变化
Yi Huang1, Jian Yang2, Guanghua Zhao3
1Key Laboratory of Biodiversity and Environment on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, Ministry of Education, School of Ecology and Environment, Tibet University, Lhasa, China.
Frontiers in plant science
|September 19, 2025
概括
气候变化威胁到一个有价值的野生蔬菜*A. victorialis*的分布. 预计适合的息地和种植区将缩小并向东北移动,需要适应性管理策略来实现可持续的资源使用.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
背景情况:
- *A. victorialis*是一种野生蔬菜,具有重要的食用和药用价值.
- 它的分布受气候的影响,在达杜河上游和明江河流域广泛采集.
- 了解气候变化影响对于其保护和可持续利用至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在未来的气候变化场景下模拟*A. victorialis*的潜在分布.
- 预测适合息地和生态的迁移模式.
- 通过生产动态模型划定当前和未来的潜在种植面积.
主要方法:
- 组合建模用于模拟潜在分布.
- 多变量环境相似性和不相似变量分析确定了关键的气候因素.
- 一个生产动态模型整合了生态适用性和营养成分.
主要成果:
- 年度温度范围,最热季度降水量和温度季节性是关键的分布因素.
- 适合息地和高产区目前位于低海拔河流谷中.
- 未来的情景预测,适合息地和种植面积的大幅缩小,并向东北转移.
结论:
- 气候变化将对*A. victorialis*的分布和种植产生重大影响.
- 高度适宜的息地和种植区在SSP5-8.5.5下面临到2090年大幅减少.
- 开发适应性管理策略对于可持续利用*A. victorialis*资源至关重要.
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