使用机器学习预测青少年犯罪和成年犯罪行为
Ulrich Schroeders1, Antonia Mariss1, Julia Sauter1
1Department of Psychology, University of Kassel, Germany.
International journal of behavioral development
|September 22, 2025
概括
机器学习模型,特别是弹性净回归,可以预测青少年犯罪,但成人犯罪行为预测的准确性下降. 青少年和成人犯罪的关键预测因素有很大的不同.
科学领域:
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 心理学 心理学 心理学
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
背景情况:
- 偏差行为违反社会规范,影响个人和社会.
- 现有的理论很难准确地预测偏差行为.
- 预测青少年犯罪和成人犯罪行为对于干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 使用机器学习检查青少年犯罪和成人犯罪行为的可预测性.
- 将传统回归与机器学习算法的预测精度进行比较.
- 确定区分青少年和成人犯罪行为的关键预测因素.
主要方法:
- 利用了从全国青少年到成人健康研究 (添加健康) 的数据.
- 采用了弹性净回归和梯度增强机器.
- 在毒品,财产和暴力犯罪之间进行区分.
主要成果:
- 弹性净回归与项目级数据显示出最好的预测准确性.
- 青少年犯罪率的预测相对准确 (R2 .39.57).
- 成人犯罪行为预测准确度显著下降 (R2 .13.16).
结论:
- 青少年犯罪和成人犯罪行为的预测因素是不同的.
- 成人犯罪的早期风险因素包括以前的青少年犯罪,性和学校问题.
- 调查结果为有关犯罪行为发展和预防策略的理论提供了信息.
更多相关视频
07:31Implementation of a Real-Time Psychosis Risk Detection and Alerting System Based on Electronic Health Records using CogStack
Published on: May 15, 2020
7.5K
11:14A Novel Experimental and Analytical Approach to the Multimodal Neural Decoding of Intent During Social Interaction in Freely-behaving Human Infants
Published on: October 4, 2015
11.4K
相关概念视频
01:18Cognitive Development During Adolescence
505
During adolescence, individuals experience significant cognitive development that enhances their understanding of others' emotions and thoughts, known as cognitive empathy. This period is marked by an increased ability to adapt to others' perspectives and a more nuanced understanding of others' mental states, a skill that is foundational for social problem-solving and conflict avoidance. The development of cognitive empathy relies heavily on the theory of mind — the...
505
01:18Steps in Outbreak Investigation
492
In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
492
01:03Prediction Intervals
3.3K
The interval estimate of any variable is known as the prediction interval. It helps decide if a point estimate is dependable.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
3.3K
01:28Human Genetics
1.5K
Human genetics provides a profound framework for understanding the interplay between genetic predispositions and human psychology. At the heart of this discipline lies the study of how genes influence physical traits, behaviors, and susceptibility to diseases. Each person carries a unique genetic code that subtly or significantly shapes their psychological and behavioral landscape.
The complex relationship between genetics and psychology is observable through common biological components such...
The complex relationship between genetics and psychology is observable through common biological components such...
1.5K
01:06Law of Effect
2.5K
B.F. Skinner, a prominent figure in behavioral psychology, introduced operant conditioning by emphasizing the role of consequences in shaping behavior. This theory builds upon the law of effect proposed by Edward Thorndike, which posits that behaviors followed by satisfying outcomes are likely to be repeated. In contrast, those followed by unsatisfying outcomes are less likely to recur.
Edward Thorndike's foundational work involved studying learning in animals, particularly using puzzle...
Edward Thorndike's foundational work involved studying learning in animals, particularly using puzzle...
2.5K
01:23Behavioral Genetics and Its Designs
1.0K
Behavior genetics explores how genetic inheritance influences human behavior. It focuses on how genes, passed from parents to offspring, contribute to the development of behavioral traits and tendencies. This branch of genetics seeks to understand the complex interplay between inherited genetic factors and environmental influences in shaping our behaviors.
The primary methodologies used in behavior genetics include family studies, twin studies, and adoption studies, each providing unique...
The primary methodologies used in behavior genetics include family studies, twin studies, and adoption studies, each providing unique...
1.0K