人类共循环的病原体:机械传播模型的系统审查
Kelsey E Shaw1, Jennifer K Peterson1, Neda Jalali1
1Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA.
数学模型越来越多地检查共同循环的病原体,而不仅仅是单一的病原体. 这次审查分析了326项研究,发现新的病原体的出现推动了多种感染和干预措施的建模.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 大多数传染病模型历史上都专注于单个病原体.
- 共同循环的病原体在现实世界中是很常见的.
- 了解病原体相互作用对于公共卫生至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 系统地审查人类病原体共同循环的机械,人口级模型.
- 在现有文献中识别病原体类型,建模技术和动机.
- 在共同循环模型中量化病原体-病原体相互作用.
主要方法:
- 对326篇发表论文的系统文献审查.
- 分析病原体类型,建模技术和研究动机.
- 开发一种相互作用指数,以量化跨尺度和病原体-病原体相互作用.
主要成果:
- 新病原体的出现 (例如,HIV,SARS-CoV-2) 刺激了对它们与已知病原体的相互作用的建模.
- 病原体的特征,如HIV的免疫抑制,影响建模动态.
- 建模的主要动机是探索疾病动态和评估干预措施.
结论:
- 新的病原体的出现显著影响共同循环疾病的建模.
- 病原体的特定特性需要量身定制的建模方法.
- 未来的研究应该解决共同循环的病原体之间的错误诊断和资源竞争.
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