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世界上最大的城市面临气候变化及其适应热量上升的适应能力
John Friesen1, Hannes Taubenböck2,3
1Department of Global Urbanization and Remote Sensing, University of Wuerzburg, John-Skilton-Str. 4a, 97074, Würzburg, Germany. john.friesen@uni-wuerzburg.de.
Scientific reports
|September 23, 2025
概括
未来的城市热量暴露将显著增加,217个城市可能会在2100年之前超过29°C的年平均温度值,影响3200万人. 适应能力因地区和城市形式而异.
科学领域:
- 城市气候学 城市气候学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 城市规划 城市规划
背景情况:
- 全球气候变化正在增加城市热量暴露.
- 了解未来的热应激和适应能力对于城市居住能力至关重要.
- 现有的研究往往缺乏对气候预测,城市形态和社会经济因素的综合分析.
研究的目的:
- 量化世界最大城市未来的城市热量暴露和适应能力.
- 整合气候预测,城市形态和经济能力,以进行全球评估.
- 确定有超出关键温度值风险的城市,并评估其适应潜力.
主要方法:
- 利用各种共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 的高分辨率平均年温度 (MAT) 预测.
- 综合局部气候区 (LCZ) 概况和在形态城市界限内的缩小规模的社会经济数据.
- 对29°C的MAT值的量化暴露和基于形态,计划措施和GDP的评估适应能力.
主要成果:
- 超过29°C的城市预计将从17 (2011-2040) 增加到217 (2071-2100),影响3200万居民.
- 建筑形式紧的城市暴露于更高的热量.
- 在适应能力方面发现了显著的区域差异,欧洲城市面临着最严重的相对变暖,非洲/南美城市面临更高的基线热量.
结论:
- 城市热量暴露是一个日益增长的全球挑战,预计到2100年将大幅增加.
- 城市形态和经济能力极大地影响着城市的脆弱性和适应能力.
- 考虑到气候,形态和经济的综合规划对于保护城市居住能力至关重要.
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