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史无前例的全球水资源短缺的首次出现是在人类世
Vecchia P Ravinandrasana1,2, Christian L E Franzke3,4
1Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan, Republic of Korea.
Nature communications
|September 23, 2025
概括
全球变暖将导致空前的水资源短缺,或零日干旱 (DZD),在许多地区的2030年代. 这些由复合极端驱动的事件威胁到恢复,并要求采取积极的水资源管理策略.
科学领域:
- 水文学的水文学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 获得水对生命至关重要,但人为全球变暖破坏了水文循环,增加了水资源短缺风险.
- 史无前例的水资源短缺事件的时间和地理热点在很大程度上是未知的.
研究的目的:
- 估计干旱驱动的水资源短缺事件的首次出现时间 (ToFE),称为"零日干旱" (DZD).
- 将DZD事件的时间和可能性归因于人类的影响.
- 确定脆弱的地区和人口,特别是在1.5°C的变暖水平.
主要方法:
- 使用了概率框架和大量气候模拟.
- 分析了水文化合物极端情况,包括降雨不足,减少河流流量和增加水消耗.
- 在各种气候场景下估计了DZD事件的ToFE.
主要成果:
- 许多地区,包括主要的水库,在20世纪20年代和20世纪30年代面临DZD的高风险.
- 在地中海,非洲南部和北美部分地区发现了一致的DZD热点.
- 城市人口在1.5°C升温时特别脆弱;DZD事件之间的恢复期不足.
结论:
- 人类的影响对DZD事件的时间和可能性有很大影响.
- 紧急实施积极的水资源管理策略是必要的,以减轻严重的社会影响.
- 越来越多的DZD事件的频率和持续时间对全球水安全构成重大威胁.
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