预测学生大学的学业成绩:圣云州立大学的案例研究
Bilal I Al-Ahmad1,2, Abdullah Alzaqebah3, Rami Alkhawaldeh1,4
1Department of Computer Information Systems, Faculty of Information Technology and Systems, The University of Jordan, Aqaba, Jordan.
PeerJ. Computer science
|September 24, 2025
概括
这项研究使用长期短期记忆 (LSTM) 模型预测学生的表现,在预测平均成绩点 (GPA) 中实现了高准确性. 这种先进的模型显著优于教育数据挖掘的传统方法.
科学领域:
- 教育数据挖掘教育数据挖掘
- 机器学习在教育中的应用
- 学术成绩预测预测
背景情况:
- 学生成绩预测对于学业成功和早期干预至关重要.
- 识别有风险的学生有助于防止失败,重大变化或学.
- 现有的模型往往缺乏复杂的学术和人口影响的复杂性.
研究的目的:
- 为了提高学生的平均成绩 (GPA) 预测准确度.
- 实施和评估长期短期记忆 (LSTM) 模型用于性能预测.
- 确定影响学生学业成绩的关键特征.
主要方法:
- 利用了圣云州立大学 (2016-2024) 29455名学生的综合数据集.
- 通过处理缺失值,编码变量和规范化特征来预处理数据.
- 通过实验验证使用基于换的方法来确定特征的重要性,并通过实验验证微调LSTM超参数.
主要成果:
- 在LSTM模型的表现优于传统模型 (LR,KNN,DT,RF,SVR) 和其他深度学习模型 (RNN,CNN) 的表现.
- 获得了99%的R2评分,平均绝对百分比误差 (MAPE) 为9.54%,平均绝对误差 (MAE) 为0.0059,根平均平方误差 (RMSE) 为0.0001.
- 在大学和部门层面都成功进行了实验,验证了该模型的通用性.
结论:
- 拟议的LSTM模型为预测学生学业成绩提供了一种强大而准确的方法.
- 功能重要性分析提供了对影响学生成功的关键因素的见解.
- 这种预测能力可以显著帮助教育机构在学生支持和干预策略.
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