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评估英格兰人类乳头瘤病毒疫苗接种计划的有效性,使用回归断续设计
Isobel L Ward1,2,3, Charlotte R Bermingham1, Kate Soldan4
1Health Research Group, Office for National Statistics, Newport, UK.
International journal of epidemiology
|September 24, 2025
概括
英格兰的人类乳头瘤病毒 (HPV) 疫苗接种计划显著减少了宫发育不良和癌症诊断. 17-18岁儿童接种补时疫苗显示,发育不良症减少31%,癌症减少75%.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 疫苗学 疫苗学 疫苗学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 英国国家HPV免疫计划于2008年开始,以预防宫癌.
- 常规疫苗接种为12-13岁的女孩提供,并为14-18岁的女孩提供补充疫苗接种.
研究的目的:
- 评估HPV追赶疫苗接种计划对宫癌和宫发育不良的诊断的影响.
- 通过准实验方法估计疫苗的有效性.
主要方法:
- 利用了2011年人口普查,医院病例统计和英格兰的死亡率数据.
- 采用回归不连续性设计,利用HPV疫苗接种资格截止值.
主要成果:
- 在接受追赶疫苗接种的23-30岁妇女中,HPV疫苗接种减少了31%的宫发育不良诊断和75%的宫癌诊断.
- 与刚刚超过追赶资格年龄的个人相比,观察到这些减少,表明明显的不连续性.
- 在接受常规HPV疫苗接种的女孩中,人们注意到子宫疾病的持续减少.
结论:
- 准实验方法产生了与传统方法一致的疫苗有效性估计.
- 提供了强有力的证据表明,HPV疫苗接种计划有效地减少了年轻女性的宫不良结果.
- 建议这种方法可应用于评估HPV疫苗接种政策变化和长期结果的未来研究,包括其他癌症和死亡率.
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