开发新技术来保护生态系统:规划与适应性管理
Luz Valerie Pascal1,2,3, Iadine Chadès3,4, Matthew P Adams1,2,5
1School of Mathematical Sciences and Centre for Data Science, Faculty of Science, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD 4000, Australia.
概括
决策者可以使用人工智能驱动的自适应管理来设定技术开发的时间限制,平衡风险和不确定性. 这种方法有助于优化对气候变化和生物多样性保护等关键领域的投资.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 人工智能的人工智能
背景情况:
- 政策制定者面临的挑战是为应对气候变化和生物多样性丧失等全球危机而投资有限资源开发新技术.
- 技术的开发和部署涉及时间表,结果和长期影响的固有不可预测性.
- 管理动态系统,例如受威胁的生态系统,需要明智地决定为技术开发分配资源.
研究的目的:
- 确定技术开发投资的最佳时间限制.
- 为投资新技术提供明确,透明的规则.
- 在技术开发和部署中平衡成本,收益和不确定性.
主要方法:
- 利用人工智能 (AI) 的自适应管理方法.
- 使用分析近似来得出一般投资规则.
- 将这种方法应用于澳大利亚大堡礁的案例研究.
主要成果:
- 在停止投资之前,确定了从0到45年的开发时间限制.
- 证明了生态系统特征如何影响最佳投资策略.
- 制定了在各个领域投资新技术的一般规则.
结论:
- 由人工智能驱动的自适应管理框架提供了一种优化技术开发投资的方法.
- 调查结果为决策者在管理风险和不确定性方面提供了实际指导.
- 该方法适用于各种领域,包括保护,公共卫生和能源生产.
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