拉瓦尔宾迪的城市热岛动态:一个30年的遥感分析和未来预测
Sundas Liyaqat1, Muhammad Y S Dasti2, Ejaz Hussain1
1Institute of Geographical Information System, National University of Sciences and Technology, Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan.
Scientific reports
|September 24, 2025
概括
拉瓦尔宾迪的城市热岛 (UHIs) 在过去30年中,建筑区和土地表面温度显著增加. 预计这一趋势将进一步恶化,需要可持续的城市规划来应对气候变化.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 遥感 遥感 遥感 遥感
- 城市规划 城市规划
背景情况:
- 城市热岛 (UHIs) 带来了重大的环境挑战,影响了快速城市化地区的气候适应性,能源使用和公共卫生.
- 巴基斯坦的拉瓦尔宾迪面临着日益增长的城市化压力,需要对UHI动态进行详细分析.
研究的目的:
- 在1990年至2020年期间,对巴基斯坦拉瓦尔宾迪的城市热岛 (UHI) 动态进行全面的时空分析.
- 使用细胞自动机-人工神经网络 (CA-ANN) 模型来预测未来的UHI强化及其影响.
主要方法:
- 利用Landsat卫星数据和谷歌地球引擎 (GEE) 进行30年时间序列分析.
- 用于土地使用的随机森林分类土地覆盖面 (LULC) 地图和统计单窗口算法用于土地表面温度 (LST) 估计.
- 应用了细胞自动机-人工神经网络 (CA-ANN) 模型用于未来的预测.
主要成果:
- 观测到建筑区增加了22.2%,与LST的3.04°C上升相关 (每年0.12°C).
- 确定了不规律的城市增长,主要是以牺牲植被土地为代价.
- 预计到2030年,建筑区将进一步增加13.8%,这表明热应力和能源需求加剧.
结论:
- 陆地表面温度 (LST) 和城市扩张之间存在显著的相关性 (r=0.43),突出了缓解策略的需要.
- 可持续的城市规划,包括绿色空间和减热基础设施,对于减少热应激和提高拉瓦尔宾迪的气候适应性至关重要.
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