在华盛顿州和俄勒冈州估计人口免疫力和COVID-19疫苗接种的影响
Mia Moore1, Larissa Anderson1, Chloe Bracis2
1Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA.
Open forum infectious diseases
|September 25, 2025
概括
严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2 (SARS-CoV-2) 疫苗接种计划显著减少了华盛顿和俄勒冈州的住院病例. 接种年轻成年人 (18-49岁) 的疫苗对于保护老年人群 (65岁以上) 至关重要.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 免疫学 免疫学 免疫学
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- 严重急性呼吸道综合征冠状病毒2 (SARS-CoV-2) mRNA疫苗对初始变种表现出高效.
- 估计人口水平疫苗有效性的挑战包括免疫力下降,新变种的出现,以及感染诱导的免疫力的持久性.
研究的目的:
- 用数学建模量化华盛顿和俄勒冈州疫苗接种避免的SARS-CoV-2相关住院病人的比例.
- 评估初级疫苗接种系列和强剂对住院率的影响.
主要方法:
- 一个以年龄和地区结构的分组模型,包括疫苗诱导和感染诱导的免疫力,已被开发用于2020年1月至2022年12月.
- 免疫性参数是从疫苗疗效的元回归得出的,并对时间变化的接触矩阵进行校准,以校准住院数据.
- 使用疾病控制和预防中心血清监测数据进行了模型验证,并通过反事实场景估计了疫苗的有效性.
主要成果:
- 初级疫苗预防了总住院病例的74%,而增强疫苗预防了额外的15%.
- 疫苗的有效性在阿尔法变种浪潮期间 (90%避免) 和65岁以上 (78%避免) 个体中是最高的.
- 接种18-49岁年龄组的疫苗,相对于仅接种50岁以上的疫苗,避免了52%的整体住院和42%的65岁以上人口住院.
结论:
- 华盛顿和俄勒冈州的SARS-CoV-2疫苗接种计划在预防住院治疗方面非常有效.
- 年轻成年人 (18-49岁) 的疫苗接种在减少老年人 (65岁以上) 的住院治疗中发挥了重要作用.
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