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在高端气候变化场景下,在维多利亚湖周围预计人口暴露于危险的热应激
Delphine Ramon1, Clare Heaviside2, Oscar Brousse2
1Department of Architecture, Faculty of Engineering Science, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.
概括
全球变暖将在非洲维多利亚湖地区显著增加危险的热应激. 到2100年,超过1.2亿人可能面临长期的极端高温,需要紧急的适应策略.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 全球气温上升和极端高温事件对健康构成重大风险,特别是在非洲等脆弱地区.
- 维多利亚湖地区特别容易受到温度上升对健康的影响.
研究的目的:
- 根据高排放气候变化情景 (SSP5-8.5) 在维多利亚湖地区评估未来的热应激和人口暴露.
- 量化到本世纪末危险的高温条件和受影响的人数的预计增加.
主要方法:
- 利用一种允许对流的气候模型来模拟未来的气候条件.
- 使用热应力指数 (humidex和热指数) 来定义危险的热量水平.
- 根据SSP5-8.5情景的综合高分辨率人口预测.
主要成果:
- 预计危险热应激的持续时间会大幅增加.
- 到2100年,多达1.22亿人 (占人口的44%) 可能会每年经历18天以上的危险热应激,比2005-2016年的100万 (1%) 显著增加.
- 每年55天,高达28%的人口 (7800万) 可能面临危险的高温.
- 气温上升和人口增长共同占人口暴露率上升的66%.
- 高风险地区包括维多利亚湖的北部和南部海岸以及城市中心.
结论:
- 该研究强调,维多利亚湖地区迫切需要采取适应措施,以应对不断升级的热应激.
- 有效的热应激评估需要考虑气候变化动态和人口增长.
- 调查结果突出了气候变化对弱势群体和地区的不成比例影响.
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