与衰老相关的功能和认知障碍和感冒死亡风险:在中国进行的一项纵向队列研究
Di Xi1, Linxin Liu2, Jialu Song2
1Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Imperial College London, London, UK.
The Lancet. Planetary health
|September 25, 2025
概括
感冒在中国显著增加死亡风险,特别是在功能或认知障碍的老年女性中. 针对性干预对弱势群体至关重要,以减少与感冒有关的死亡.
科学领域:
- 环境流行病学环境流行病学
- 老年学是指老年学的学科.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 与感冒相关的死亡率是中国的主要健康负担.
- 人口老龄化面临来自非最佳温度的高风险.
- 了解特定的风险因素是减少与温度相关的疾病负担的关键.
研究的目的:
- 探索中国与寒冷有关的死亡率的与衰老相关的风险因素.
- 提高温度相关死亡率相对风险指标的准确性.
- 为了确定易受寒冷时期影响的特定子组.
主要方法:
- 使用了可变时间的考克斯比例危险模型.
- 分析了来自中国纵向健康长寿调查的13527名参与者 (平均年龄89岁).
- 数据涵盖了2008-2018年,包括每天暴露于寒冷时期和4659个冬季死亡率.
主要成果:
- 感冒日与死亡风险的近两倍相关 (HR 1.87-2.08).
- 日常生活活动障碍 (ADL) 和认知缺陷显著增加了脆弱性 (HR 2.23-3.74).
- 女性面临的死亡风险高于男性 (HR 1.50-1.89),女性面临的死亡风险高于男性 (HR 2.17-2.27).
结论:
- 干预措施应优先考虑患有ADL损伤和认知缺陷的老年人,特别是女性.
- 像补贴供暖和寒冷预警系统这样的社区计划可以减轻风险.
- 建议针对功能依赖个体提供有针对性的护理人员支持.
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