结束CDC为艾滋病毒检测提供资金的潜在影响:在18个州进行的建模研究
Ruchita Balasubramanian1, Melissa Schnure2, Ryan Forster3
1Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.
medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
|September 26, 2025
概括
美国疾病控制和预防中心 (CDC) 停止为艾滋病毒检测提供资金,到2030年可能导致超过12,000例新的艾滋病毒感染. 这种破坏不成比例地影响了农村地区,突出了CDC持续为预防艾滋病毒提供资金的重要性.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 预防艾滋病毒/艾滋病 预防
背景情况:
- 及时诊断和治疗艾滋病毒对于预防传播至关重要.
- 美国疾病控制和预防中心 (CDC) 资助重要的艾滋病毒检测计划.
- 估计资金中断对艾滋病毒感染的影响对于公共卫生规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 预测由于美国各州停止或中断CDC资助的艾滋病毒检测导致的额外艾滋病毒感染人数.
- 根据不同的资金场景,量化艾滋病毒发病率的潜在增加.
主要方法:
- 一个经过验证的艾滋病毒传播模型被用来模拟美国18个州的流行病.
- 模拟了三种情景:没有恢复的测试停止,在2027年恢复,在2029年恢复.
- 与不间断资金的基线相比,计算了发生过多的艾滋病毒感染.
主要成果:
- 据估计,如果CDC的资金在2025年10月结束,到2030年预计将增加12,719例艾滋病毒感染.
- 这意味着艾滋病毒发病率增加了10%,在各州之间存在很大的差异 (例如,华盛顿州的2.7%,路易斯安那州的29.9%).
- 拥有较高数量的CDC资助的测试和更多农村艾滋病毒流行病的国家将面临更大的预测增长.
结论:
- 疾病预防控制中心资助的艾滋病毒检测中断将显著提高新的艾滋病毒感染率.
- 农村艾滋病毒流行特别容易受到资金中断的影响.
- 这些发现强调了CDC的艾滋病毒检测计划在控制艾滋病毒传播方面的关键作用.
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