人口结构的变化,政策调整,以及中国公共养老金的可持续性
Weiqiang Fan1, Jia Meng2, Hualei Yang3
1School of Economics and Management, East China Jiaotong University, Nanchang, China.
PloS one
|September 26, 2025
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 公共政策 公共政策
- 精算科学 精算科学
背景情况:
- 人口老龄化和生育率下降对公共养老金的可持续性构成重大挑战.
- 了解人口变化的财务影响对于长期社会福利规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析人口结构变化和政策调整对中国公共养老金体系金融可持续性的影响.
- 预测未来的养老金赤字,并评估各种政策干预措施的有效性.
主要方法:
- 利用精算模型预测养老金收入,支出和累计余额.
- 评估了多种情景,包括生育率,退休年龄,经济增长和养老金增长的变化.
主要成果:
- 如果没有政策调整,到2028年,中国的养老金体系将面临赤字,到2050年将达到147411.037亿元人民币.
- 将生育率与补充水平相匹配提供了最小的改善,并没有改变赤字趋势.
- 将法定退休年龄推迟至65岁显著提高了财务可持续性,防止到2050年出现赤字.
结论:
- 推迟法定退休年龄是确保养老金金融稳定的关键策略.
- 降低养老金增长率和增加经济增长对于养老金系统的长期健康至关重要.
- 为了确保老年人的福利和保持公共养老金的可持续性,必须结合政策改革.
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