中国城市家庭碳足迹的模式,驱动因素和预测:基于跨学科的方法
Haoyu Hao1, Xuepeng Guo1, Chenyang Wang2
1School of Applied Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China.
Journal of environmental management
|September 26, 2025
概括
中国的城市家庭碳足迹显著,间接排放超过直接排放. 主要驱动因素包括经济增长和人口,但技术进步和消费转变可以减轻气候变化.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
- 城市可持续性 城市可持续性
背景情况:
- 推动气候变化的人类活动需要了解碳排放.
- 城市家庭部门是全球碳足迹的主要贡献者.
- 测量和控制城市家庭的碳排放是一个重大的全球性挑战.
研究的目的:
- 分析中国城市家庭碳排放的模式,驱动因素和预测.
- 调查不同发展路径对碳排放的影响.
- 为了确定减轻城市碳足迹的减缓潜力.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自中国208个城市 (2002-2020年) 的283529个家庭级排放记录的新型数据集.
- 采用跨学科的方法:环境输入-输出模型,对数均值划分指数 (LMDI) 和随机森林与夏普利增量解释 (SHAP).
- 分析了空间差异和主要的排放驱动因素.
主要成果:
- 间接排放总是超过直接排放,在2016年左右达到顶峰.
- 在东部沿海地区,市政当局和省会都观察到更高的排放量.
- 人均GDP,人口密度和极端天气是关键因素;技术进步抑制了排放,消费模式转变显示了减缓潜力.
结论:
- 综合城市规划,气候政策,技术创新和清洁能源采用对于减排至关重要.
- 低碳发展道路有效减少间接排放,减缓直接排放.
- 解决城市家庭的碳足迹对于实现全球可持续发展目标至关重要.
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