个体变异和季节性疫苗接种对疾病风险的影响
William S Hart1, Jina Amin2, Hyeongki Park3,4
1Wolfson Centre for Mathematical Biology, Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. william.hart@maths.ox.ac.uk.
Nature communications
|September 26, 2025
概括
估计疫情爆发风险需要考虑个体传播差异和时间变化. 我们的框架通过分析疫苗分发时间来帮助优化COVID-19助推活动,以在人口免疫力较低的时期减轻风险.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 公共卫生干预 公共卫生干预
背景情况:
- 准确的疫情风险评估对于公共卫生规划至关重要.
- 影响疫情风险的关键因素包括个体传播变异性和时间动态,如季节性和人口免疫力.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个新的框架来估计疫情爆发风险,同时考虑到传染和时间变化的个体变化.
- 应用该框架来优化年度COVID-19增剂疫苗接种活动的设计.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个同时爆发风险估计框架.
- 纳入了疫苗诱导抗体动态的个体级模型.
- 模拟的年度COVID-19增强疫苗接种活动.
主要成果:
- 在人口免疫力较低时,在年度疫苗分发开始时确定了高爆发风险潜力.
- 证明,延长疫苗分发时间可以有效地减轻这种风险.
- 显示较长的分发时间更有利于高疫苗覆盖率/有效性和有限的传播季节性.
结论:
- 开发的框架提供了一种可靠的方法来估计疫情爆发风险.
- 优化疫苗分发时间是管理传染病爆发的关键干预策略.
- 通过考虑与人口免疫力和传播模式相关的分布持续时间,可以增强年度COVID-19助推策略.
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