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地球陆地生物群的气候脆弱性
Katharina Runge1, Colin Averill2, Thomas Lauber2
1Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland. katharina.runge@usys.ethz.ch.
Scientific reports
|September 26, 2025
概括
了解气候变化下的植物生存对于生态系统管理至关重要. 我们的模型预测生物气候环境会发生重大变化,到2080年,11-17%的土地可能会发生变化.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 机器学习 机器学习
背景情况:
- 可持续的生态系统管理和恢复需要预测植物物种在当前和未来的气候条件下生存.
- 由于环境压力而改变气候外可能会对生态社区产生不可预测的后果.
- 准确的生物气候包裹 (BCE) 对于理解这些动态至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用机器学习模型,在各种气候变化场景下预测生物气候包裹 (BCE) 的变化.
- 确定可能在2080年之前经历重大ECB转移或高度不确定性的陆地区域.
- 为气候智能恢复和生态系统管理策略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 在全球生物群分布数据上训练了机器学习模型,结合了土壤和气候变量.
- 经过验证的模型以90%的准确度准确捕捉当代生物气候环境 (BCEs).
- 根据代表性度路径 (RCP) 4.5 和 8.5 场景预测未来的欧洲央行.
主要成果:
- 预计到2080年,11-17%的陆地表面将经历 BCE的变化.
- 16-19%的地区在未来几十年的ECB轨迹上表现出高度的不确定性.
- 在RCP 8.5.5下观察到BCE边界的极地转移,原BCE缩小了高达47%,干地BCE扩大了.
结论:
- 预计气候变化将在全球范围内显著改变生物气候环境,影响植被适应性.
- 鉴定了由于未来气候变化的原因,当前植被可能面临压力条件的地区.
- 强调需要适应性管理策略来应对预测的生态变化和不确定性.
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